The Wren Sessions, a working musician, runs a 58% margin and clears a median $1,450 a month after every cost. Its worst honest month is $300. With $9,400 in the bank against $2,250 of monthly burn, it holds 4.2 months of runway.
The safe draw sits at or below the $1,450 median, with a written answer for how a $300 month gets bridged. A draw set above the median here would quietly spend the runway one month at a time.
Median of the last 6 to 8 months of profit as the ceiling; worst honest month as the floor; cash runway as the referee. The full method, including how to compute it by hand in ten minutes, is in the main pay-yourself guide, and the calculator sorts your months for you.
What is specific to working musicians
The $1,450 to $300 spread above is the honest picture of creative income: the floor is the number that plans your life. Set fixed personal costs against the floor, let everything above it accumulate toward runway, and the feast months stop being a trap.